My Macro Watch - December 18'


Signs of economic slowdown in Europe, China and especially in USA.

Switzerland and Australia in good shape. Italy still a big threat in Europe.

UK wage growth is the lowest of G20. Link to Brexit?

USA performing well but signs of a coming recession.



GLOBAL / WORLDWIDE

Recession - How the next recession might happen. The Economist. Oct 2018
https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:6459731038502555648

Recession - The risk of a global recession is extremely high.- graph from US research bureau Ned Davis Research. 28.10.2018
https://www.businessbourse.com/2018/10/28/le-risque-de-recession-mondiale-est-extremement-eleve/

Economic u-turn - China, Asia's biggest economy, may see its first fall in car sales on record in 2018 as consumption is stifled amid a trade war between Washington and Beijing. In Japan, the economy contracted in the third quarter, hit by natural disasters but also by a decline in exports amid the rising protectionism that is starting to take its toll on global trade. And in India, a plunging rupee has resulted in surging import costs, including for oil, stifling purchases in one of Asia's biggest emerging markets. India's car sales are also set to register a fall this year.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-asia-oil-demand/asias-weakening-economies-record-supply-threaten-to-create-oil-glut-idUKKCN1NJ0D6

Recession - The Yield curve generally inverts ahead of recessions, and it happened in December 2018.
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/opinion/articles/2018-12-03/u-s-yield-curve-just-inverted-that-s-huge?__twitter_impression=true
https://twitter.com/Schuldensuehner/status/1070095733372715008?s=19


ASIA (excluding China and India)

Asia's Growth Is Shifting Down a Gear. 28.11.2018
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2018-11-28/asia-succumbs-to-global-slowdown-as-trade-war-threatens-pain?__twitter_impression=true


CHINA

China's economic growth slowed in the third quarter to its slowest pace in nine years. Industrial production faltered again in September. 19.10.2018
https://www.latribune.fr/economie/international/l-economie-chinoise-s-essouffle-t-elle-794630.html

The Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI fell to a 16-month low of 50 in September of 2018 from 50.6 in the previous month and missing market consensus of 50.5. Oct 2018. https://tradingeconomics.com/china/manufacturing-pmi/forecast

China’s Aging Problem Is a Serious Threat to Growth. 28.11.2018
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/opinion/articles/2018-11-28/chinese-u-s-growth-will-suffer-as-aging-shrinks-workforce?__twitter_impression=true


CLIMATE AND PLANET

How long everyday plastic items last in the ocean. 02.11.2018
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/11/chart-of-the-day-this-is-how-long-everyday-plastic-items-last-in-the-ocean

Higher electrification may lead to oil demand peaking by 2030, but any reduction in emissions from the likes of electric vehicles will be offset by the increased use of power plants to charge them. 12.11.2018
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2018-11-13/electrifying-the-world-no-panacea-for-global-warming-iea-says?__twitter_impression=true

California is banning the sale of eggs from caged hens. 08.11.2018
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/11/california-is-banning-the-sale-of-eggs-from-caged-hens


EUROPE

EUROZONE

The euro zone has recorded its weakest growth for more than two years according to the latest Markit index. The poor performance of the Italian economy explains, in part, this sharp slowdown. 06.11.2018
https://www.latribune.fr/economie/union-europeenne/zone-euro-coup-de-frein-sur-la-croissance-796469.html

Philippe Waechter: "Towards a slowdown in growth in the euro zone by 2020". 09.11.2018
https://www.boursorama.com/videos/actualites/ostrum-am-philippe-waechter-vers-un-ralentissement-de-la-croissance-en-zone-euro-d-ici-2020-3e6ccacfa36ce77a5fa669a590722b78

Euro zone inflation confirmed at six-year high in October. 16.11.2018
http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-eurozone-economy-inflation/euro-zone-inflation-confirmed-at-six-year-high-in-october-idUKKCN1NL150

FRANCE

The expansion of activity has actually slowed since the beginning of the year and employment has followed, but more markedly than GDP. 13.11.2018
https://philippewaechter.ostrum.com/2018/11/13/lemploi-prive-sameliore-a-la-marge-au-3eme-trimestre-en-france/

Why People in Yellow Vests Are Blocking French Roads. 30.11.2018
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-30/why-people-in-yellow-vests-are-blocking-french-roads-quicktake

This is a proof of slowing down. Growth in the manufacturing sector fell in November to its lowest level in 26 months, while new orders were down for the first time, also for 26 months, according to IHS Markit. 23.12.2018
https://bfmbusiness.bfmtv.com/entreprise/la-petite-forme-de-l-industrie-manufacturiere-francaise-1580334.html

GERMANY

The parent company of Mercedes-Benz and Smart must lower for the second time in a few months its forecasts of results. 19.10.2018
https://bfmbusiness.bfmtv.com/monde/nouvelle-alerte-aux-profits-pour-daimler-1548202.html

The IHS Markit Germany Manufacturing PMI fell to 52.3 in October of 2018 from 53.7 in September and well below market expectations of 53.4. Looking forward, we estimate Manufacturing PMI in Germany to stand at 55.50 in 12 months time. Oct 2018
https://tradingeconomics.com/

German growth slows for the first time since 2015. 14.11.2018
https://www.latribune.fr/economie/union-europeenne/la-croissance-allemande-ralentit-pour-la-premiere-fois-depuis-2015-797510.html

GREECE

Greek pensioners have seen their payouts slashed so much, some of them are moving to one of the poorest countries in Europe. 08.11.2018
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-08/greeks-retirees-head-to-bulgaria-to-make-pensions-go-further

ITALY

Surge in public debt, which stands at 132% of GDP. 25.10.2018
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/three-points-italy-its-budget-european-commission-philippe-waechter

SWITZERLAND

Switzerland has exported nearly 18% more weapons material during the first nine months of this year than during the same period last year. 19.10.2018
https://www.rts.ch/info/suisse/9929449-les-volumes-d-exportation-d-armes-ont-augmente-de-pres-de-18-en-2018.html

Manufacturing PMI in Switzerland is expected to be 60.90 by the end of this quarter. In the long-term, the Switzerland Manufacturing PMI is projected to trend around 57.20 in 2020. Oct 2018
https://tradingeconomics.com/switzerland/manufacturing-pmi/forecast

Yen, Swiss franc to regain allure if global market storm hits. 23.10.2018
http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-forex-yen-analysis/yen-swiss-franc-to-regain-allure-if-global-market-storm-hits-idUKKCN1MX1HR

In the third quarter of 2018, total employment (number of jobs occupied) increased by 1.6% compared to the same quarter of the previous year (+ 0.1% compared to the previous quarter, seasonally adjusted). Employment in full-time equivalents increased by 1.8% over the same period. The economy as a whole registered 13,500 vacant places more than in the same quarter of the previous year (+ 23%) and the employment outlook indicator is still rising (+1, 0%). 26.11.2018
https://www.bfs.admin.ch/bfs/fr/home/actualites/quoi-de-neuf.gnpdetail.2018-0235.html

UNITED-KINGDOM

BP has started extracting oil from one of the U.K.'s biggest offshore investments in decades. joint venture: It is intended that BP will hold a 45.1 percent interest in the field, Shell will own 28 percent, Chevron North Sea is to take 19.4 percent and Conoco Phillips 7.5 percent. 23.11.2018
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/23/uk-and-us-majors-start-oil-production-on-north-sea-megaproject.html

Wage growth in UK is the lowest of G20
https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:6472878698772201472


INDIA

The Nikkei India Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.2 in September of 2018 from a three-month low of 51.7 a month earlier. Looking forward, we estimate Manufacturing PMI in India to stand at 52.00 in 12 months time.
https://tradingeconomics.com/india/manufacturing-pmi/forecast


NORTH-AMERICA

CANADA & QUEBEC

Small jobs, the engine of the Canadian economy. 27.10.2018
https://www.letemps.ch/economie/petits-jobs-moteur-leconomie-canadienne

UNITED STATES

The U.S. economy has a greater than 50-50 chance of tipping into a recession in the next two years, according to a model tracked by JPMorgan Chase & Co. October 2018
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-18/u-s-recession-chances-in-next-two-years-top-60-jpmorgan-says

There’s a whopping $1.5 trillion in student loans out there (through the second quarter of 2018), marking the second-largest consumer debt segment in the country after mortgages, according to the Federal Reserve. And the number keeps growing. 20.10.2018
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-17/the-student-loan-debt-crisis-is-about-to-get-worse

Wage growth lower than in 2001. 23.10.2018
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/22/upshot/mystery-slow-wage-growth-econony.html

The IHS Markit US Manufacturing PMI rose to 55.9 in October of 2018 from 55.6 in September. Looking forward, we estimate Manufacturing PMI in the United States to stand at 53.20 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United States Manufacturing PMI is projected to trend around 51.00 in 2020. Oct 2018
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/manufacturing-pmi/forecast

The U.S. surpassed Russia in August to claim the title of world’s top oil producer, with the largest year-on-year output increase in U.S. history. 31.10.2018
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-31/u-s-passes-russia-briefly-to-become-top-oil-producer

The United States has a very low unemployment rate and solid growth. 05.11.2018
https://www.la-croix.com/Economie/Economie-et-entreprises/LAmerique-redecouvre-plein-emploi-revers-2018-11-05-1200980832

US household debt has reached a new record high at $ 13510 billion. 17.11.2018
https://www.businessbourse.com/2018/11/17/la-dette-des-menages-us-vient-datteindre-un-nouveau-sommet-historique-a-13510-milliards/

Economy slowing drastically next year before a possible recession in 2020. 21.11.2018
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/21/trump-economy-expected-to-slow-down-in-2019-before-possible-recession-in-2020.html?__source=twitter%7Cmain

Slowing industrial production in USA. 23.11.2018
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4224153?source=ansh

Recession in US - Auto sales in the U.S. have declined from their level of three years ago and have taken a considerable drop from their peak in 2017. 28.11.2018
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/opinion/articles/2018-11-28/this-strange-expansion-might-set-up-a-mundane-recession?__twitter_impression=true

Recession - The Yield curve generally inverts ahead of recessions, and it happened in December 2018.
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/opinion/articles/2018-12-03/u-s-yield-curve-just-inverted-that-s-huge?__twitter_impression=true
https://twitter.com/Schuldensuehner/status/1070095733372715008?s=19


OCEANIA

Australia’s economy is still booming. Oct 2018
https://www.economist.com/special-report/2018/10/27/australias-economy-is-still-booming-but-politics-is-a-cause-for-concern


OIL

Oil prices have fallen sharply since passing a cyclical peak at the start of October, amid surging production and mounting concerns about the state of the global economy and the outlook for consumption growth in 2019. 14.11.2018
http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-oil-prices-kemp/commentary-oil-prices-tumble-as-traders-look-beyond-iran-idUKKCN1NJ1E3

Global supply has surged, led by soaring output from the world's three-biggest producers - the United States, Russia and Saudi Arabia - who in October broke through joint output of 33 million bpd for the first time, meeting more than a third of total oil consumption. 14.11.2018
http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-asia-oil-demand/asias-weakening-economies-record-supply-threaten-to-create-oil-glut-idUKKCN1NJ0D6

Oil prices slump to their lowest level of 2018 even as OPEC considers cuts. 23.11.2018
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/23/oil-prices-slump-to-their-lowest-level-of-2018-even-as-opec-considers-cuts.html



JT

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